Hauslebauer now becomes dangerous variable interest rates and more and more busy suffering under fixed-term employment transactions
Largely unnoticed in the crisis in Germany, the terms of course break, which have played a role centrally at the outbreak or the compilation of the financial and economic crisis. For example, it is expected that the interest rate binding of mortgages is now significantly short and then it is over with the stability at the German real estate market. Temporary employment procedures celebrate as a prime. In 2009, every second new employment contract in Germany has already been concluded only limited. While these crisis catalysts spread, they work in the EU for three years unsuccessfully at an efficient financial supervision and continues to argue about a financial transaction tax.
Among other things, the variable real estate interest and the excessive temporary procurement that Spain sink so deep in the economic crisis (the absent Spain gives the EU prasidens). The country is from a high flight, especially powered by a construction room and a real estate bubble, deep into the cellar and the fourth grobned economy in the euro area is traded as a bankruptcy candidate. And that was easy to see, even if many long the Spanish "wonder" be celebrated as a model. The Spanish head of government even said three years ago, "Germany and Italy at the per capita income in two or three years" override.
It was already due to the fact that the statements of the Social Democrats Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero simply laughed. It has been a question of time for almost ten years until the system that allows banks and savings banks allowed to roll out the risks almost completely on the housekeepers and residential purchasers over a very short-term interest rate binding, against the wall. Expectant would soon only need a maby interest increase in an increase in interest in order to collapse countless families under the debt burden (how lazy loyalty is clean) because they were no longer able to serve their loans, even if they were not unemployed.
Exactly that happened when the financial crisis from the United States swapped to Europe, where such a majority is also gain and giving and decisively contributed to the outbreak of the financial crisis. It was therefore not difficult to predict that especially the Lander were hit hard, in which also real estate bubbles had inflated. Once low, but variable interest rates for mortgages had bleeded the bubbles in a low interest rate phase in Ireland, Spain and Great Britain. And that’s exactly what the EU countries, which have noticed in 2009 in addition to Greece by their huge budget deficits (Greece’s deficit has risen again).
Consequences were not drawn from it. At the variable interest rates, for example, nothing has changed in Spain, until today, not even a highest limit for the variable interest rates was retracted to protect the families at least a little bit. In this case, no one can access the so popular formula currently, according to which there is a worldwide or at least Europe-wide overcoming income. It has been important for years important reforms on the ST. Never-shifted, such as the import of a financial transaction tax, an effective prohibition of uncovered shortcuts or a real financial supervision.
"With the stability of the German real estate market, it was allowed to be over"
Instead, a Spanish, Irish, English, US university spreads. Because there is the interest rate binding for mortgages usually only very short. External factors drove very quickly to loan losses, which can quickly bring consumers into heavy emergencies without their own fault. So in Germany the departure from a long-term interest rate bond before. Briefly pointed to Siegfried Jaschinski. The Prasident of the Federal Association of Public Banks declared that there will soon be almost only short interest liabilities in the Berlin Republic. The time was allowed to be over in the "Real estate financing with up to ten-year fixed interest rates."
Loans with long-term interest rate binding became rarer and more expensive, warned Jaschinski. He passed the changes in the banking sector, which have come in motion with the crisis. The long interest rate binding has been possible to be possible because of the coarse number of mortgage banks, which could access the German Pfandbrief as a very inexpensive refinancing source. The Landesbanken had come to this, which were with state guarantees the coarse providers of long-term financing in Germany. "The number of mortgage banks is heavily shrunk as a result of the financial crisis, more or their balance sheet total and the offer of long-term mortgage loans." Thus, it contributes to the country banks who did not devote themselves to their actual tasks, but sashed internationally and sometimes girked in force (power games in the matchcasino).
"With the stability of the German real estate market, it was allowed to be over now", writes Jaschinski and the goods end for a stable development of house prices in Germany. A home purchase will be a limited extent to a rough risk, because interest ears also in Germany "Fighter to the interest burdens of private and professional real estate owners". As in the US or Spain, many homeowners could quickly no longer serve their loans in the future, lose their house, though they did not even have become unemployed. This can lead to countless emergency shop and foreclosures that are always climbing new records in the USA. This in turn comes to strongly falling real estate prices. This leads to the fact that the real estate often has no longer the value, which is a mortgage on them, which the loan is no longer secured. "Banks holds the real estate credit business no more reliable and transparitable risk", Resumes Jaschinski.
What he does not describe this downwards, is that this leads to the fact that the construction industry largely collapses, in the several other industries. Therefore, unemployment increases and that drives the spiral further. In Spain, unemployment is exploded as in any other Euroland, which is also due to the structures of the labor market. Part of a barely existing conservation protection, which is always ruined, which is praised by the Chancellor. Officially, therefore, an unemployment rate of about 20% has been officially registered.
Also in the US plays the high unemployment rate, which is still clearly above that in the "Lubricant" the so-called bank stress test was adopted as a worst case, an essential role in the banking die. Thus, past weekend, four institutes were closed by the US Deposit Guard for FDIC. Overall, it is already 88 institutes in 2010, which are locked into the bankruptcy. This can be expected that the record is broken from the previous year, when 140 banks were closed.
In Germany, every second employment contract was already concluded in 2009
In Spain and the US, Precare work transactions have played a role that unemployment could quickly climb, with which further loans burst. And with the flexibilization of the work market in Germany, this site also wave the danger of new financial crises. Temporary employment carrier and temporary employment procedures are now already celebrating primer. In 2009, every second employment contract in Germany has been closed only in 2009.
Last year, it was 47% and the quota was thus three percentage points above the previous year’s level. The Nurnberger Institute for Labor Market and Professional Research (IAB) announced last Friday that this is a new record. What is the fatal tendency here, a comparison with 2001 makes it clear, when 32% fewer than a third of all new fragment were closed limited. That the total number of temporary employees in 2009 with around 2.5 million, however 150.000 Lower than in the previous year, shows that, above all, the employees with the precara work transactions in the crisis had to go to the employment office.
In some areas, for example in public administration, almost Spanish conditions prevail, because there are 68% of the new representation only for a limited time. In the field of education and lessons, it is even 74% and at the social system at least 58%. The study also shows that it is a misleading that a temporary contract is usually an indefinite contract. The chances have even decreased further. In 2008, with 52%, the half of the temporary employees received a fixed-term contract after a temporary procurement. 2009 but only 45%. In the producing trade, in the permanent tolerance still the rule are, the proportion of the contract, which have been converted into the fixed representation, rushed from 68% to 38%.
Germany is still a stucco on this ie of Spain, where about 90% of the deliverance has been closed only for years. Thereafter, the work market reform 2006 did not change anything, the new reform will probably not change much. As with mortgage rates, however, it is clearly and clearly a tendency that even in the work restrictions Germany is always stronger on the dangerous Spanish ways. Exactly the bastions falling, which the country has so far made of uniformly glimated by crisis. If one has shown in the economic crisis, then it is: Learning to learn from Spain, learn to lose.