Why corona numbers are falling? Four possible explanations

For about two weeks now, the Infection figures with a view to Corona in Germany relatively stable – recently they have even fallen somewhat. The seven-day incidence of new Corona infections long according to the data of the Robert Koch Institute of Thursday morning at 76.3. On Wednesday, this was 77.9, and on Tuesday it was even slightly higher at 81.1. A week ago, the incidence was put at 83.5.

This seems to be a good sign at first, but experts warn against rejoicing too soon or predicting the end of the so-called fourth wave already to be proclaimed. For the decline there are explanations – and these also show: That it remains permanently with a stagnation is not to be expected, even if it remains for the time being somewhat calmer.

Explanation number 1

"We saw the same phenomenon last year. Travel activity is decreasing and the Numbers are dropping", explains Viola Priesemann, head of a research group at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, to our editorial staff

The decline can be explained by the previously high Infection figures at the travel returnees and -returnees. "In some cases, these accounted for 15 percent of the reported cases," also emphasizes Thorsten Lehr, professor of clinical pharmacy at Saarland University. "Now we're getting back into our normal rut and everything that was washed in from the vacations is flattening out."

Declaration number 2

The expert for Corona forecasts sees in the end of the summer season another important aspect for the slight decline in numbers: "After the Summer vacation infections have skyrocketed, especially in schools," explains Lehr. "Infections that previously went undetected were rediscovered through regular testing."

Now that school is back in session for a few weeks in most states, more stability is occurring. "Due to quarantine measures, however, some families are also now more isolated again," adds the expert. This also contributes to the containment of the Virus at – and thus lead to a decrease in the numbers.

In these federal states the 2G rule applies

Why corona numbers are falling? Four possible explanations

Declaration number 3

For physicist Priesemann also play the incidences in our Neighboring countries a role, to which contact is made, for example, by cross-border commuters or short vacationers.

"Our neighbors such as France or the Netherlands currently have much lower incidences than in recent weeks or months. There was Incidence two to three times higher there than it is now," Priesemann said.

"And the incidences in neighboring countries have a certain tendency, because of mobility and Commuters to strive for a common average." Saying: the incidences of the respective countries are converging. "As a result, the numbers are also declining here in Germany," says the expert.

Statement number 4

It goes on and on inoculated. "As a result, we are at least approaching effective herd immunity, even if it has yet to be achieved," says Priesemann. This is another way of slowing down the spread of the disease – even if, of course, one would like to see a stronger vaccination effect even now.

What does this stagnation mean for the further development of the numbers?

In an interview with our editorial team, forecasting expert Lehr emphasizes that the current development is by no means the end of the fourth wave ring. "We had the same phenomenon last year – only with numbers that were lower by a factor of eight," Lehr said. "In pretty much the same period of time, we were at a Incidence Of 10."

After that the numbers had risen again. And that's exactly what pharmacy professor Lehr expects this year – at the latest from Late September, When everything returns to normal.

For Priesemann, too, the current figures do not mean that the all-clear has been sounded with a view to the coming weeks. "That doesn't mean at all that we won't still be in the Fall can get a big wave," says the researcher.

"Israel with a similar Vaccination rate shows us that it is still possible to achieve incidences well above 500."However, vaccinated persons are very well protected. This is also confirmed by the figures of the RKI: Currently infected are mainly the people who are not immunized.